FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Paulette
LOCATED
385 MI SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
WINDS
100 MPH
PRESSURE
966 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 29 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TODAY
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southsoutheast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southsoutheast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep convection. The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation. An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since that instrument can't resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore, weakening is expected. The hurricane is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around 20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front. Although not explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 51 feet. Swells from Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour. Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep convection. The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation. An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since that instrument can't resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore, weakening is expected. The hurricane is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around 20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front. Although not explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt. A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that, Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the hurricane are 51 feet. Swells from Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

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