FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Depression Seventeen
LOCATED
1160 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1006 MB
MOVING
W AT 5 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020
NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. By late Monday and Tuesday, a turn toward the westnorthwest is expected, and that motion should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. By late Monday and Tuesday, a turn toward the westnorthwest is expected, and that motion should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the 120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model guidance envelope. The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4 days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day 5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus mod

The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the 120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model guidance envelope. The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4 days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day 5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus mod

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