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FLORIDA
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Tropical Storm Theta
LOCATED
435 MI S OF THE AZORES
WINDS
65 MPH
PRESSURE
990 MB
MOVING
E AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the eastsoutheast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the eastsoutheast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks.

The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models.

The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its appearance. Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model consensus tracks.

The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and is close to the various consensus models.

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