There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None.
None.
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 26.0 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to gradually turn toward the eastsoutheast and slow its forward speed by tomorrow night. A continued slow eastsoutheastward motion is then expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 26.0 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to gradually turn toward the eastsoutheast and slow its forward speed by tomorrow night. A continued slow eastsoutheastward motion is then expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 h. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
tructure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around. Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this advisory. Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus. Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next 12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter, in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance.
tructure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around. Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this advisory. Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus. Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next 12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter, in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance.
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