There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None.
None.
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 24.9 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone should turn toward the eastsoutheast and slow its forward speed today. A continued slow eastsoutheastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so. Afterward, weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate in 5 days.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 24.9 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone should turn toward the eastsoutheast and slow its forward speed today. A continued slow eastsoutheastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so. Afterward, weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate in 5 days.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though, these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.
Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12 hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday, the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week.
Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right to align more with the various consensus aids.
A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though, these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.
Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12 hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday, the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week.
Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right to align more with the various consensus aids.
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