Florida Storms Icon
FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Theta
LOCATED
620 MI SE OF THE AZORES
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1000 MB
MOVING
E AT 6 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020
THETA HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 19.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through at least tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by late Sunday, and Theta is expected to accelerate to the northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday morning, and dissipate early next week. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 19.2 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through at least tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by late Sunday, and Theta is expected to accelerate to the northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday morning, and dissipate early next week. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity guidance.

Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta is weakening, which will result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models.

A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the intensity guidance.

Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta is weakening, which will result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the track consensus models.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram