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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Theta
LOCATED
640 MI SE OF THE AZORES
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1003 MB
MOVING
E AT 5 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 18.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the northeast is expected on Sunday, and Theta is forecast to accelerate northward or northnortheastward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night and dissipate early next week. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 18.7 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the northeast is expected on Sunday, and Theta is forecast to accelerate northward or northnortheastward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night and dissipate early next week. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week.

Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday.

Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB.

Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week.

Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday.

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