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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Theta
LOCATED
540 MI SSW OF THE AZORES
WINDS
65 MPH
PRESSURE
990 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020
THETA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 31.4 West. Theta is moving toward the eastnortheast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 31.4 West. Theta is moving toward the eastnortheast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the east with a slower forward speed by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

loud appearance of Theta briefly became a bit more symmetric earlier tonight, though the colder cloud tops that attempted to wrap around the low-level center have recently decayed, possibly due to entrainment of dry mid-latitude air. A 2243 UTC ASCAT-B pass and a subsequent ASCAT-C pass both found the max winds with Theta a little stronger than previously estimated with maximum values exceeding 50 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this could even be a little conservative. Over the last 6 h Theta appears to have made a slight jog left of the previous forecast track, perhaps related to the convection wrapping around the center, but the longer term motion is still east-northeast at about 10 kt. Over the next day, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. Between 48 h to 72 h Theta's track is forecast to bend east and then east-southeast as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens a bit, and mid to upper-level northerly flow from a weak mid-level ridge attempts to build in to the west. The latest track guidance shows a fair amount of spread in how quickly Theta makes this bend to the east-southeast, and this is a large source of uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC track forecast splits the difference between the faster ECMWF and slower HMON/HWRF guidance, and is not far from the TVCN consensus. The intensity forecast of Theta has been adjusted upward for the first 48 h due to the higher initial intensity. GFS-SHIPS diagnostics indicate the vertical wind shear will gradually decrease while Theta moves through an unstable temperature profile conducive for moderate to deep convection. Thereafter, the aforementioned upper-level northerly flow will lead to an increase in the vertical wind shear and import very stable mid-latitude air over Thetas circulation. Most of the reliable global model guidance shows Theta succumbing to these negative effects and becoming a remnant low by 96 h. The official intensity forecast shows the same, and is on the high side of the guidance but not far from any of the models since the spread is quite low.

loud appearance of Theta briefly became a bit more symmetric earlier tonight, though the colder cloud tops that attempted to wrap around the low-level center have recently decayed, possibly due to entrainment of dry mid-latitude air. A 2243 UTC ASCAT-B pass and a subsequent ASCAT-C pass both found the max winds with Theta a little stronger than previously estimated with maximum values exceeding 50 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 55 kt, and this could even be a little conservative. Over the last 6 h Theta appears to have made a slight jog left of the previous forecast track, perhaps related to the convection wrapping around the center, but the longer term motion is still east-northeast at about 10 kt. Over the next day, Theta is expected to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. Between 48 h to 72 h Theta's track is forecast to bend east and then east-southeast as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens a bit, and mid to upper-level northerly flow from a weak mid-level ridge attempts to build in to the west. The latest track guidance shows a fair amount of spread in how quickly Theta makes this bend to the east-southeast, and this is a large source of uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC track forecast splits the difference between the faster ECMWF and slower HMON/HWRF guidance, and is not far from the TVCN consensus. The intensity forecast of Theta has been adjusted upward for the first 48 h due to the higher initial intensity. GFS-SHIPS diagnostics indicate the vertical wind shear will gradually decrease while Theta moves through an unstable temperature profile conducive for moderate to deep convection. Thereafter, the aforementioned upper-level northerly flow will lead to an increase in the vertical wind shear and import very stable mid-latitude air over Thetas circulation. Most of the reliable global model guidance shows Theta succumbing to these negative effects and becoming a remnant low by 96 h. The official intensity forecast shows the same, and is on the high side of the guidance but not far from any of the models since the spread is quite low.

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