1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be anextremely dangerous category

4.hurricane when it approaches thecoast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophicwinds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portionsof the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where ahurricane warning is in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impactsare possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical stormconditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible onSan Andres.

3. Through Friday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely leadto life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding acrossportions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras andNicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effectsthere, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Providencia
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi
- The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- San Andres
- The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
- The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 2030 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.

El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm).

WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions expected Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres later this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A lifethreatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to westnorthwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to westsouthwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

The satellite presentation of Iota has continued to improve thisafternoon. A ragged eye has become apparent in visible satelliteimagery, with excellent banding features surrounding it. An AirForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a minimum centralpressure of 977 mb during its first pass through the center earlierthis afternoon, and recorded around 974 mb on its second pass.Somewhat surprisingly, the plane only measured peak 700-mbflight-level winds of 74 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt. Those windssupport an intensity slightly lower than what was previouslyestimated, but given the low central pressure and downward trend,plus the fact that the plane only made a single pass in eachquadrant, it is possible that the maximum winds were not sampled.In addition, the satellite presentation and pressure fall may bepreceding the winds slightly. Therefore, the initial is again setat 80 kt. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is enroute and should provide additional information on Iota's intensitythis evening.

Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions consistingof low vertical wind shear and warm waters are expected to lead torapid strengthening until the center crosses the coast of CentralAmerica. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for Iota to reachmajor hurricane strength tonight, and become an extremely dangerouscategory 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Central AmericaMonday night. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to theprevious advisory and shows a peak slightly above the latest HFIPcorrected consensus model. After landfall, rapid weakening shouldoccur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Iota is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 8 kt. Thetrack forecast philosophy is unchanged from before. A strongmid-level ridge that extends across the western Atlantic andFlorida will steer Iota westward to west-northwestward throughlandfall Monday night. Once Iota moves over Central America, awestward to west-southwestward motion is expected. The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward through 24 hours, but little overall change was required thereafter. The official forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

In addition to potentially catastrophic winds, Iota is expected tobring a life-threatening storm surge and extreme rainfall impactsto portions of Central America. This comes less than two weeksafter Hurricane Eta significantly impacted the area.