An area of disturbed weather south of Cuba has an increasing chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression this weekend, increasing the flood risk across parts of South Florida.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

Images from satellite were showing a better-defined system, with heavier showers and thunderstorms over the central and western Caribbean Sea Friday morning. Computer models have been hinting at tropical development in this area for more than a week, but have been inconsistent in timing the organization of this system. The increasing organization of the disturbance prompted the National Hurricane Center to increase the chances of development to 60% as of their mid-morning Friday update.

Days of easterly winds have been producing bands of heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida, where soils are already saturated. An analysis of gauge and radar data show that much of the Gold and Treasure coast areas have seen rainfall between 150 and 250 percent of average over the past 30 days. The forecast for 3 to 6 inches of additional rain in some areas this weekend is the reason why Flood Watches are in effect.

lol The forecast track and intensity of the disturbance is highly uncertain because it is in its formative stage. For much of the season, global computer models have done a poor job forecasting what meteorologists call the “genesis” (or formation) of tropical cyclones. The overall steering pattern may draw moisture northward from this disturbance into South Florida this weekend, but there is a good chance the core of the disturbance could stay in the Caribbean until early next week. Another cold front over the United States may pick this system up into the eastern or central Gulf of Mexico some time next week, but interests in Florida are encouraged to monitor forecasts this weekend as changes are likely.

Expires at 6:00pm on Saturday October 24th, 2020

Localized flooding will continue to be possible across portions of South Florida through Thursday, thanks to tropical moisture being funneled in by a disturbance south of Cuba.

A Flood Watch continues through at least Wednesday evening for coastal and metro areas of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center says the disturbance south of Cuba has a “low chance” of tropical development in the next five days as it moves east of Florida and toward the Bahamas. At the present time, this disturbance does not pose an immediate or significant tropical threat to the State of Florida. However the presence of nearby tropical moisture could enhance rainfall rates in portions of South Florida over the coming days, or until the system moves farther away from the Sunshine State.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

Expires at 12:00pm on Thursday October 22nd, 2020

A cold front will pass through the northern half of Florida this weekend, while attention turns to the Caribbean early next week for possible tropical development.

The high pressure system which has been responsible for the recent warm, dry weather is expected to move east and allow a cold front to move into the Florida Panhandle Friday. The front will then move into North Florida Friday night, before slowing to a crawl across central and south Florida on Saturday and Sunday respectively.

A sharp temperature gradient will develop across the peninsula Saturday, and a strong northeast flow behind the front will create rough surf and minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic Coast.

A shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible ahead of the cold front, but limited moisture will keep rain chances low in most areas through Saturday. Showers are more likely across south and east Florida Sunday thanks to a strengthening onshore flow bringing more moisture into the area.

Cooler and drier air will follow the passage of the front, dropping temperatures near or slightly below average for at least a day across the panhandle and portions of North Florida. Morning lows will fall into the 60s north of the I-4 corridor Saturday, and afternoon highs will only rebound to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Near-normal temperatures are expected across South Florida where the front will have less of an impact.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

All eyes will then turn to the tropics early next week, where a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has the potential to develop. The National Hurricane Center outlined the area as having a "low chance" of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two to five days. Environmental conditions are then expected to become more favorable for development and long range forecast models suggest the system might move toward the north or northeast by late next week.

Hurricane season officially ends November 30th, but South Florida is generally more vulnerable to cyclones during the month of October. Storms typically develop this time of year in the Caribbean and off the Southeast coast of the United States, often giving residents little time to prepare due to the proximity to land.

Expires at 8:00am on Saturday October 17th, 2020

Flooding rains along portions of Florida’s Treasure and Gold Coasts are poised to move up the peninsula this weekend.

A cold front which brought cooler, drier air to much of central and north Florida earlier in the week has stalled over south Florida. Deep tropical moisture high in the atmosphere, partially tied to newly-formed Tropical Depression 25 in the western Caribbean, is expected to gradually develop northward over the upcoming weekend.

The National Weather Service has continued Flood Watches into the weekend for both the Treasure and Gold Coasts. Many areas in Martin and St. Lucie counties have had more than 9 inches of rain over the past several days, and an additional 2 to 4 inches are possible through Friday night. This new rain may cause flooding of urban areas and exacerbate existing flooding in areas that are already saturated.

Farther north, widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is becoming more likely toward the I-4 corridor, beginning on Saturday and lasting into Saturday night and Sunday. Locally higher totals exceeding 3 inches are possible, if not likely, according to forecasters at NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. Heavy rain could expand as far north as the First Coast, Gainesville, and Lake City on Sunday, but there is more uncertainty in the threat of flooding in these areas because of dry air that is firmly entrenched in those areas.

Moisture high in the atmosphere from Tropical Depression 25 is likely to enhance rainfall over the Florida Peninsula. However, the latest forecast track from The National Hurricane Center takes the depression westward toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and then farther west into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early next week. If this track holds, the state of Florida would not experience direct effects from this tropical system.

Much of the Florida Panhandle is likely to stay dry over the upcoming weekend as high pressure nosing southward from the Appalachians maintains greater control over the weather in that part of the state.

Two tropical waves have the potential to develop in the Caribbean by this weekend, and one of them could be of particular interest to Florida next week.

The active pace of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season came to a standstill last week, giving coastal residents a brief sigh of relief. However, meteorologists anticipate that the basin could enter into another active period later this week as the final active month of the hurricane season approaches.

On Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center outlined an area of broad showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea as having a moderate chance of developing into a tropical system within the next five days. The disturbance is expected to move westward and interact with a frontal system by the end of the week, which will likely enhance thunderstorm activity and organization. Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive for further development over the weekend, when a tropical depression could form as the system moves towards the Yucatán Peninsula.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

There is a significant amount of uncertainty regarding the development of the system and a range of scenarios for its potential track. The disturbance could drift inland over the Yucatán Peninsula and southern Mexico, become near stationary in the Bay of Campeche, or drift eastward and enter into the central Gulf of Mexico which, at that time, could threaten Gulf Coast States.

There is also another scenario that weather models are hinting at where two systems form within a few days of each other instead of just one. If this scenario plays out, one of the systems could travel westward into Central America and the second system would form east towards Cuba and likely track to the north.

Tropical cyclone genesis tends to favor the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico during the month of October, bringing systems very close to land. The transition from Summer to Autumn in the northern hemisphere generally introduces cooler temperatures and stronger vertical wind shear across the open Atlantic which aids in suppressing tropical cyclone development. The Atlantic is expected to remain quiet into the end of the week as a vast area of enhanced wind shear continues to be draped over the region and extend east towards the west coast of Africa. This wind shear area could lessen by the end of the weekend which could allow more tropical cyclone development in the upcoming weeks.

Twenty storms so far this season have became the earliest on record to develop in a calendar year. Nine of those tropical cyclones have directly impacted the United States, which ties the record set in 1916. The next named tropical storm for the 2020 season would be "Gamma", the third letter in the Greek Alphabet and the second time ever to be utilized.

Expires at 6:00pm on Thursday October 1st, 2020

Tropical activity has been excessively active throughout August and September, but now a lull is expected for at least the next two weeks as the final active month of hurricane season approaches.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

A strong convectively-suppressed Kelvin wave, which causes sinking air and less thunderstorm genesis, is expected to pass through the tropical Atlantic over the next 10 to 14 days. This is expected to inhibit tropical cyclone development over the open Atlantic as the month of October approaches.

Carl Schreck III of the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies and North Carolina State University studies the effects of Kelvin waves and how they influence the development of tropical cyclones. Atmospheric Kelvin waves are tropical rainfall systems accompanied by distinctive westerly and easterly wind patterns. The waves move eastward around the planet sometimes lasting for week and can circumnavigate the tropics over the course of a month.

Schrecks’ study finds that fewer cyclones develop in the three days leading up to a Kelvin wave’s maximum rainfall, while more storms form in the three days afterward.

The National Weather Service Prediction Center notes that this brief quiet period may only last for the remainder of September before environmental conditions become favorable again for cyclogenesis, particularly in the Caribbean and the far eastern Atlantic.

During the month of October as temperatures cool in preparation for Fall and Winter, tropical activity begins to favor parts of the Caribbean and southern regions of the Gulf of Mexico, where warm sea surface temperatures and minimal vertical wind shear remain.

However, these favorable areas are much closer to land which may give coastal residents less time to be informed about an approaching tropical system and minimal time to prepare. Mid-October statistically produces a second spike in tropical cyclone activity before the season as whole begins to decline. Notable storms which formed in the month of October include: Hurricane Wilma (2005), the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide as measured by barometric pressure outside of the West Pacific; Hurricane Sandy (2012), one of the largest cyclones and the fifth costliest on record; Hurricane Michael (2018), coming ashore as a Category 5 and the tenth costliest hurricane on record; and Hurricane Opal (1995), the strongest Category 4 hurricane recorded and the third most severe landfalling cyclone in the United States based on size and intensity.

Hurricane Season concludes November 30th giving ample time for another spike in tropical activity. Once this Kelvin wave passes activity could ramp up again by mid to late October.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has already brought a total of 20 records for earliest named storms and it may break another record for most landfalls in the United States. A total of nine cyclones have impacted the States this season, tying the 1916 season.

Expires at 8:00am on Friday September 25th, 2020

Sally is leaving the Sunshine State, but the tropics remain active with two named storms and possibly two more on the horizon, including a system in the western Gulf of Mexico.

NO CURRENT STORMS IN ATLANTIC BASIN

After dumping more than 30 inches of rain in the Pensacola area, Sally has weakened to a depression, but is threatening the Carolinas with flash flooding and isolated tornadoes Thursday. A few trailing rain bands were stretching as far south as North Florida Thursday afternoon, but widespread flash flooding is no longer anticipated from Sally. Existing flooding and river flooding are expected to last for several more days in the western Florida Panhandle, mainly from the Apalachicola River westward to the state line with Alabama. Some rivers are not expected to crest until the weekend because of additional run off from rains in Alabama and Georgia.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, near the Mexican coastline. They said a tropical depression or named storm is likely to form there later Thursday. It is expected to move north to northeastward Friday and Saturday, but most reliable track models keep the developing system over the western Gulf through Saturday. The forecast track beyond that time is more uncertain and residents along the Gulf coast should occasionally monitor forecasts for possible changes this weekend.

Hurricane Teddy is forecast to be a major hurricane over the open Atlantic waters between the Leeward Islands and Bermuda later Thursday into the weekend. It may threaten Bermuda on Monday, a mere week after Hurricane Paulette moved directly over the island. Teddy is forecast to otherwise stay out at sea through Tuesday of next week.

Tropical Storm Vicky is over the far eastern Atlantic and is expected to dissipate because of strong wind shear over the storm. It is no threat to land areas.

Finally, another tropical wave a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (off the African coast) has a medium chance of becoming another depression or named storm late this week. The National Hurricane Center says conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical storm formation over the upcoming weekend. It, too, is not expected to affect any land areas at this time.

Expires at 11:00am on Friday September 18th, 2020

A tropical storm or hurricane is not expected to threaten Florida this weekend. However, an abundance of tropical moisture from a nearby tropical wave could lead to repeating downpours and possible flooding in portions of the state.

The National Weather Service issued a Flood Watch Thursday afternoon for all counties along Florida's Gulf Coast from Tampa to Fort Myers, where meteorologists say current forecast data suggests enough rain may fall on already saturated ground to cause flooding. A tropical wave is expected to traverse the state Saturday, further enhancing some of the rainfall, thus the watch is in effect through Sunday morning.

Rainfall amounts through Sunday are likely to range from 2 to 4 inches along and west of I-75 from Tampa to Naples, with locally higher amounts possible in some areas. Generally, 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected over the three-day period across the western half of the peninsula and along coastal sections of the Florida Panhandle. Lesser amounts of rain are expected along Florida's Atlantic Coast, except for portions of South Florida where amounts up to 2 inches will be possible.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are multiple areas being monitored for possible future development in the next five days. However, none of them are an immediate threat to the Sunshine State. Tropical storms Paulette and Rene also continue to spin across the central Atlantic, but are not likely to affect any land areas of North America.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

The next tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season would be named “Sally”. The current record for earliest “S” named storm belongs to Stan which formed on October 2, 2005. There have already been an impressive fourteen records for earliest named storms this year in the tropical Atlantic basin.

Expires at 6:00pm on Saturday September 12th, 2020

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several tropical waves near Africa, but none pose a current threat to the Southeastern United States.

The month of September is certainly living up to its reputation of being an active month in the tropics. So far this month, Nana and Omar have developed and dissipated in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a train of tropical waves is progressing off the west African coast and into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. These clusters of thunderstorms all have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three areas off the coast of Africa. All could develop into tropical cyclones within the next week. In this region, sea surface temperatures remain elevated and the atmosphere is rich with moisture. Both of these factors support cyclone development. However, upper level winds are strong and these may detract from intensification. As these areas of interest track westward, the wind shear is forecast to decrease which could encourage storm organization.

Regardless of which waves, if any, become the season's next storm, broad scale weather patterns suggest that they may not be a threat to land. Several global models indicate that over the next week or two high pressure ridging will develop over both the eastern Atlantic and over the Bahamas. A gap between these two ridges may guide any tropical systems toward the north before they reach the United States.

There are many other factors that play into the formation, intensification, and track of a tropical cyclone. The long range forecast is uncertain, but confidence is high that there will be no tropical threats to the Southeast this Labor Day weekend.

Expires at 6:00pm on Saturday September 5th, 2020

Multiple tropical waves are being monitored for possible development this week in the tropical Atlantic basin, as the traditional peak of hurricane season nears. There are no immediate threats to the Sunshine State, but residents are encouraged to stay informed of future updates all week.

NEW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
NHC: Medium chance of tropical development in next five days.

A broad area of low pressure continues to deliver widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Florida Panhandle and North Florida Sunday as it moves eastward and exits into the Atlantic by early this week. This low pressure has a high chance of developing into a Tropical Depression by midweek, according to the National Hurricane Center, but it posses no risk to Florida. This disturbance is forecast to continue north-northeast and parallel the southeast United States before the track shifts more eastward late week allowing the storm to move further out to sea. Nevertheless, showers and thunderstorms will continue to be numerous across northeastern parts of Florida and the Southeast through Monday as this system attempts to develop off the coast.

Further away from the United States, forecasters are watching three separate waves in the deep tropical Atlantic. The first tropical wave, known as Invest 99, was moving westward, through the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. It was producing heavy showers and gusty winds to parts of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Recent satellite-derived surface winds have indicated that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the wave over the last 24-hours. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have increased the chances of development to "high" over the next few 48 hours. Invest 99 could become a tropical depression or storm by midweek as it nears Central America and the Yucatán.

Finally, two tropical waves located near West Africa each have a low chance of developing over the next several days. The first tropical wave has already come off of the continent and was located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday morning. Forecasters say that this system is producing limited shower activity and any further development is expected to be slow as it continues westward towards the central tropical Atlantic. Development chances remain low over the next two days due to increased vertical wind shear near Africa but environmental conditions are expected to improve if the wave enters into the central or eastern Atlantic by late week.

The second wave by Africa has yet to emerge off the west coast of the continent. However, by midweek this wave should be located near the Cabo Verde Islands and some gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week as it is forecast to move generally westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

September begins this Tuesday, marking the historical peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season. During an average season there are usually four named systems by the beginning of September. Two of which would become hurricanes and one of which would be major (Category 3-5). So far, 2020 has been “normal” with regards to the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, four and one, respectively. However, the season has so far produced 13 named storms, more than three times the normal amount seen in an average season. The next system to develop into a Tropical Storm will be given the name “Nana”.

Expires at 11:00pm on Sunday August 30th, 2020

Loading...