There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 43.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the westnorthwest or west with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Moderate additional strengthening is possible today and Paulette could be near hurricane strength by tonight. Gradual weakening is expected by late Wednesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Paulette's organization has noticeably improved since last night. The tropical storm is still sheared, with its outflow restricted to the southwest, however overnight AMSU imagery indicated that convection was beginning to wrap around the western portion of its circulation. The intensity estimate has been increased to 55 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off, and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite.

Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in a very different track late in the period since it affects the point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the 5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower than normal due to high spread in the track guidance.