There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Please consult products from your local weather offic

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 49.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday evening and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Restrengthening is expected to commence over the weekend.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

ugh Paulette's center of circulation has separated farther south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of -79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it's reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend, however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance, including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner (COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough, extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4 and 5.