There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower eastward or eastsoutheastward motion is expected by late Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday. Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12 hours. An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again. The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus.

Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters lie ahead along the forecast track. This, along with moderate vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low shortly thereafter.