CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).

Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification. For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point.

The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther south and show an even more gradual turn.