There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the westnorthwest is expected later today, followed by a temporary westward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the westnorthwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

0-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt winds.

In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore, slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days. Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean.