There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general westward or westnorthwestward motion is expected through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of 45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus.

Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences. In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted very little from the previous prediction.

The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded based on the recent scatterometer data.