FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
1035 MI E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
996 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020
PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or westnorthwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or westnorthwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50 kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days. The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts. Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance envelope by that time.

Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50 kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days. The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts. Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance envelope by that time.

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