There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westnorthwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette could become a hurricane by Sunday or Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

ighest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep convection which is displaced to the north of the center of circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so, fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) aid. Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about 12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today.