1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday andTuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensitynear the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, stormsurge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions ofthe Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swellscould cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands today and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a little generous.The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cycloneis steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that there is still sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soonto know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda earlynext week.The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus models.