1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane thisweekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or westnorthwest with some increase in forward speed is expected through early Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear, Paulette's center is embedded beneath the cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB.Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt) based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette, which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction during that period in deference to those normally reliable models.The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48 hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone's hardiness in the face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after 36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5 days.