1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the GreaterAntilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United Statesinto the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. A hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early Saturday.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 53.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the northwest or westnorthwest is expected through Sunday night, followed by a sharp turn toward the north by late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should be near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly, lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below the latest HWRF simulation.Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeasternUnited States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA model solutions.