FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
750 MI SE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
70 MPH
PRESSURE
987 MB
MOVING
NW AT 16 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020
PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane onSunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becomingmore likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricanewatch could be required for the island early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the GreaterAntilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United Statesinto the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions.

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane onSunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becomingmore likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricanewatch could be required for the island early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the GreaterAntilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United Statesinto the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westnorthwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westnorthwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period. By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern. Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past fewhours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from theprevious advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north ofPaulette will likely steer the tropical storm generallywest-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. Thecyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate inthat direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spreadremains relatively low, especially for the first few days.Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda earlyMonday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close itwill get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCAconsensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast.

Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period. By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern. Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past fewhours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from theprevious advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north ofPaulette will likely steer the tropical storm generallywest-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. Thecyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate inthat direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spreadremains relatively low, especially for the first few days.Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda earlyMonday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close itwill get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCAconsensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast.

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