1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane onSunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becomingincreasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricanewatch have been issued for the island.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the GreaterAntilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United Statesthrough the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surfand rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westnorthwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and northnorthwest on Monday and Monday evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloudpattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulettemaybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60 kt.The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shearmagnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much morediffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicatethat the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone shouldcontinue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulettewest-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough. The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is based on the various multi-model guidance.