1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane onSunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolongedperiod of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expectedon Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warningis in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of theLeeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the UnitedStates during the next day or two. These swells could causelife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropicalstormforce winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westnorthwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern and should provide more information about winds associated with Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches) based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft.

Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next 6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this evening.The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through 5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no significant changes were made from the morning forecast.As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at 28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions, showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from Bermuda.