FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
1205 MI W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 3 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020
DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general weestnorthwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the westnorthwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general weestnorthwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Modest additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus.

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However, the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe, which formed on September 17, 2005. Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model consensus. Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets, the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest multi-model consensus.

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