FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
295 MI SE OF THE AZORES
WINDS
60 MPH
PRESSURE
1002 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 17 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or eastnortheast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become posttropical by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the eastnortheast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or eastnortheast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become posttropical by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left. The estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded convective structure. New scatterometer passes this morning should give us a better idea of how the winds have changed. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours. If convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, there is significant model divergence, with several models (such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it westward. The latter solution appears more realistic since a shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by ridging to the north. The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid.

The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left. The estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded convective structure. New scatterometer passes this morning should give us a better idea of how the winds have changed. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours. If convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours. After that time, there is significant model divergence, with several models (such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it westward. The latter solution appears more realistic since a shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by ridging to the north. The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid.

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