FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
335 MI SE OF THE AZORES
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1006 MB
MOVING
E AT 14 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None

None

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to eastnortheast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low within the next day or so.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to eastnortheast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low within the next day or so.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a remnant low by as early as this evening. Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model solutions.

The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30 degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a remnant low by as early as this evening. Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model solutions.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram