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FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Paulette
LOCATED
390 MI ESE OF THE AZORES
WINDS
40 MPH
PRESSURE
1006 MB
MOVING
E AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020
PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN
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DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to eastnortheastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to eastnortheastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models.

Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection, there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result, the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be moving westward into westerly mid-level shear. Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the 36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of the NHC track guidance models.

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