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None.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the westnorthwest is expected on Wednesday, a westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the westnorthwest or northwest by late Friday.

Satellitederived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.

With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at the end.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards, the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and missing the full influence of the low.