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Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette

UPDATED
500 PM AST Sat Sep 18 2021
LOCATION
295 MI ESE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1001 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 18 MPH

Odette becomes a post-tropical cyclone south of nova scotia.

ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.


SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post Tropical Cyclone Odette was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 65.1 West. Odette is moving toward the east northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A turn toward the east and east southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass well south of Atlantic Canada tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity.

The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

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Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
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