CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday afternoon. These conditions may linger throughout most of the day Monday.
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, and the Bahamas, and will spread to Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by Saturday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 57.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or early Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected through Saturday, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend.
Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.08 inches).
1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.
3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see directwind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughoutthe western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of thissystem and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday.
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Beta. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday.
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 93.1 West. Beta is moving toward the northnortheast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected through the weekend, and Beta could be near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear.Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5.The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches (75 mm) over the northern portion of Portugal and into westcentral Spain through Saturday morning.
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alpha was located near latitude 40.4 North, longitude 8.4 West. The storm is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken into a depression overnight and a remnant low pressure area on Saturday.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
Radar data from Portugal indicated that Alpha made landfall at about 1830 UTC with a fairly impressive spiral band signature. It is estimated that the winds were 45 kt at landfall, and a sustained 10-minute wind of 39 kt was recorded at Sao Pedro de Noel. The minimum central pressure is analyzed at 996 mb at landfall due to a 999 mb value at Monte Real with a 31-kt sustained wind. Since these data were recorded, the radar presentation has deteriorated, and satellite imagery suggests the small cyclone could be de-coupling from its mid-level center. The winds are assumed to have come down, with a current estimate of 40 kt. The small cyclone should continue to move northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 12-24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. No significant changes are required to the forecast for track or intensity.
Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.
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