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Tropical Storm Mindy Approaches North Florida While Larry's Swells Arrive Along Atlantic Beaches

Mindy is unlikely to be a significant threat, but impacts from newly formed tropical storm and Hurricane Larry well offshore are making their presence known.

WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1008 MB
MOVING
WNW AT 14 MPH
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system.


RAINFALL: The outer bands of the depression could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico later Sunday through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands Sunday night and Monday. These swells could cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 53.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring to the east of the northern Leeward Islands now has a well-defined center and sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression. The depression has a small area of deep convection near its center and curved bands on its north and east sides. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak classifications and could be conservative.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward at about the same pace during the next few days as it moves in the flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to break down and the steering currents are forecast to become weak. Not surprisingly, the spread in the models increases around that time, but most of the solutions show a slow turn toward the north toward broad troughing associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette. The GFS is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the northern side. The NHC track forecast lies between those models near the consensus aids.

Some strengthening seems possible during the next 12 to 24 hours and the system is expected to become a tropical storm during that time frame. However, an increase in southerly and then southwesterly vertical wind shear should cause the system to level off in strength from 24 hours through the end of the forecast period. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is in line with the majority of the guidance.

Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area.<

WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
1001 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 18 MPH
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post tropical cyclone.


SURF: Swells generated by Odette are affecting portions of the United States Mid Atlantic coast and are expected to spread northward to portions of the U.S. Northeast and Atlantic Canada coasts during the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post Tropical Cyclone Odette was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 65.1 West. Odette is moving toward the east northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A turn toward the east and east southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will pass well south of Atlantic Canada tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


Odette appears to have completed extratropical transition, perhaps a little earlier than the global models want to admit. The cyclone has developed a frontal structure similar to that of a bent back occlusion, with cold-air stratocumulus clouds advecting eastward to the south of the center behind the trailing cold front. In addition, the remaining deep convection is closer to the system's triple point than multiple-swirled center of circulation. The initial intensity is highly uncertain since all three ASCAT instruments completely missed the area where the strongest winds were likely to have been occurring, and it is held at 40 kt based on continuity.

The post-tropical cyclone has turned to the east-northeast and is moving a little faster--now with a motion of 060/16 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours while Odette is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After 24 hours, Odette is expected to detach from the prevailing flow, which will cause the cyclone to slow down and meander southeast of Newfoundland by days 3 through 5. The track guidance has shifted slightly southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend and continues to hedge toward a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

Now that Odette is extratropical, global models indicate that baroclinic forcing should support strengthening and expanding of the gale-force wind field during the next couple of days. During this evolution, the strongest winds will also migrate to the northern and western side of the circulation. The frontal low is expected to occlude in about 3 days, coincident with the beginning of its meandering motion, and that occlusion process should cause a slow weakening of the winds through the end of the forecast period. One caveat is that some of the models have been hinting that the occluded low could redevelop deep convection near the center and transition to a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but there has not been enough consistency among the guidance to explicitly make that forecast. If the system's forecast track continues to shift southward toward warmer waters on days 3 through 5, that scenario could become a stronger possibility.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Odette is forecast to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday. Please refer to products from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Odette. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1004 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 6 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible.

2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will diminish tonight.

3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along portion of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts.


There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches possible from southern Louisiana to the far western Florida Panhandle. Life threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urban areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html

STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will gradually subside into this evening. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible for a few more hours along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. These conditions should diminish later tonight and Wednesday morning.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible tonight through early morning from southeast Louisiana to southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast this evening and gradually subside tonight. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nicholas was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 94.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow motion toward the east is expected tonight through Wednesday night, followed by a northward drift on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nicholas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low Wednesday night or early Thursday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observation indicate that the center of Nicholas is over the Beaumont/Port Arthur area of southeastern Texas. The cyclone is currently comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers, with a few patches of deep convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a combination of Doppler radar data and surface obs, and these winds are mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Nicholas should continue to weaken due to strong shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low after 24 h and dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that some of the track guidance models show enough south of east motion to bring the center back over the Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. However, even if this should occur the shear and dry air should prevent any re-development.

The initial motion is 060/5. While there is some spread in the guidance, it generally agrees on a slow eastward motion for 36 h or so, followed by a northward drift. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track.

Although the winds associated with Nicholas are subsiding, due to the forecast slow motion, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.

The is the last advisory on Nicholas issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

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