Two new tropical storms and a new tropical depression have formed in the past 24 hours, joining Major Hurricane Teddy in an already historic hurricane season.

Hurricane Teddy is the strongest of the current storms, a category 4 hurricane, and is located over the open waters of the Central Atlantic. It is forecast to track northwestward this weekend before being deflected due North buy a frontal system exiting the United States. Teddy is expected to near Bermuda early next week, and could deliver another round of heavy rain and storm surge to the island that was impacted by Category 1 Hurricane Paulette on September 14. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Teddy could still be a hurricane toward the middle of next week as it approaches Nova Scotia.

WINDS
130 MPH
PRESSURE
947 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH

Tropical Storm Wilfred, the last storm name from the Latin alphabet, formed in the eastern Atlantic on Friday morning. Wilfred will likely not exhibit too much additional strengthening as moves westward over the weekend. By early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Wilfred will likely degenerate into a remnant low.

Subtropical Storm Alpha also formed on Friday and is located off the coast of Portugal. This marks the first time since 2005, and only the second time in history that the Greek alphabet has been employed to name storms. Alpha will likely be a short-lived system, but is expected to douse Portugal with heavy rain and create rough seas.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two has the nearest proximity to the United States: On Friday morning it was located over the western Gulf of Mexico, about 250 miles southeast of the Texas and Mexico border. This system has exhibited signs of organization, and forecasters expect it to strengthen into a tropical storm late Friday or early Saturday. Once this occurs, it will acquire a name Beta.

WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 7 MPH
KEY MESSAGES
ALERTS
HAZARDS
SUMMARY
DISCUSSION

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to atropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly overthe western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the Texas coast from Sunday through at least the middle of next week as the system is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office.

3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see directwind and storm surge impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast.


Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression.


SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyTwo was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northnortheast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates include 35 kt from TAFB, 30 kt from SAB, and 35 kt from CIMSS satellite consensus, which means the depression is close to tropical-storm strength. Given the lack of organization seen in earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will be held at 30 kt pending the data from the next set of scatterometer overpasses. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the depression had to turn back after getting hit by lightning.The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/6. For the next 24 h or so, the cyclone should move north-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. This trough is then expected to lift out to the northeast, with low- to mid-level ridging building to the north of the cyclone. This should cause a westward turn at a continued slow forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough over the central United States should cause the ridge to weaken and steer the cyclone northward to northeastward near the Texas coast. While the guidance agrees with this general sense of the motion, there are a lot of differences in the models on the when's and where's of the various turns. Therefore, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively.The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear, and the global models suggest that this will generally continue through the forecast period. This, combined with forecast dry air entrainment near the 72 h point, has resulted in the intensity guidance keeping the system near to below hurricane strength through the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous one and calls for the cyclone to be at hurricane strength at 60 and 72 h. However, this part of the forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.

Regardless of when or if Tropical Depression Twenty-Two intensifies, the system is expected to remain over the western Gulf of Mexico through at least the middle of next week. After that, remnant moisture and energy from the system could track toward the Central or Eastern Gulf Coast, including Florida's Gulf Coast. Should this occur, rain chances will likely increase and dangerous surf could develop at the beaches. Interests in these areas should follow the forecast closely in the coming week.

LOCATED 75 MI N OF LISBON PORTUGAL
MOVING NE AT 17 MPH
WINDS 50 MPH
PRESSURE 999 MB

LOCATED 275 MI ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MOVING NNE AT 7 MPH
WINDS 35 MPH
PRESSURE 1005 MB

LOCATED 525 MI ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 12 MPH
WINDS 130 MPH
PRESSURE 947 MB

LOCATED 630 MI WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING WNW AT 17 MPH
WINDS 40 MPH
PRESSURE 1008 MB

LOCATED 245 MI ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH
WINDS 35 MPH
PRESSURE 1005 MB

LOCATED 550 MI ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MOVING NW AT 12 MPH
WINDS 130 MPH
PRESSURE 947 MB

LOCATED 235 MI E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MOVING NE AT 3 MPH
WINDS 35 MPH
PRESSURE 1005 MB

Loading...