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Despite Potential Tropical Development, North Florida Largely Unaffected

May 5, 2015

A disturbance to our east will continue to influence North Florida's weather this week, but not necessarily in a bad way.  This system could even strengthen to become a subtropical or tropical storm by Friday, which would certainly make for an early start to the 2015 Hurricane Season.  However, confidence is high that whatever forms will stay offshore and miss the state entirely.  As a result, our local forecast will remain largely unchanged through Saturday, which includes mostly warm and dry conditions. The close proximity of the developing storm, though, could send a few showers inland and make it breezy at times through the end of the week, especially during the afternoon hours.


Futuretrack showing a few showers moving onshore throughout the day on Wednesday


  • More clouds than sun, with a few showers possible, mainly in the afternoon. Highest chances east of US Highway 301.
  • Breezy at times, with inland winds 10 to 20 mph, but gusts along the Atlantic Coast could be as high as 30 mph.


  • Drier in most areas, due to the system (potentially a subtropical storm) moving further north and east
  • Breezy conditions will continue, especially in northeastern counties

One model output showing the disturbance staying offshore of the coast of Florida and drier air moving in for the end of the week


  • Models suggest the possible storm could be approaching the coast of South Carolina, with lessening influences on our weather
  • A stray shower or two is possible by afternoon, as a piece of energy rotates around the system


  • As the system pulls away, winds will shift to the southwest and bring in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico
  • A weak Gulf sea breeze could trigger a few spotty showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but most areas will stay dry most of the day



Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
Sources include the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Highway Patrol and other nearby traffic information.

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