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Invest 99: Most Likely "Rain Without a Name"

September 27, 2015

Many meteorologists have dubbed the phrase "rain without a name" over the years, accounting for heavy rain that can occur from a tropical weather system even if it isn't officially named. For some Floridians, this has happened twice already this summer. And that's just what may happen with Invest 99, the disturbance the National Hurricane Center is monitoring over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms will likely spread across a large portion of the peninsula Monday and Tuesday.

 

Tropical Formation Unlikely

TropicalModels-FPBS

Forecast data hasn't been very helpful in recent days to make a credible call on whether the system becomes tropical or not. However, Sunday's solutions from nearly all of the reliable forecast models points to a very weak area of low pressure moving toward the Florida panhandle late Monday.  There's no doubt the Gulf waters are warm enough to foster convection. The questionable tropical outcome with Invest 99 is all related to the upper level winds. They are just too strong and will likely keep the low from becoming very organized.

 

Regardless, Heavy Rain for Some

StateRain-FPBS

Regardless of tropical development, the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices are emphasizing there will be a heavy rain risk Monday and Tuesday across the panhandle and parts of west Florida. There's even the low chance an isolated tornado may develop in some of the rain squalls. As it relates to the panhandle, the rainfall is welcome news. Much of this region has been abnormally dry in recent months. Near Tampa, however, a recent rainfall surplus makes the extra water unwelcome.  No matter whether you need the rain or not, Floridians are urged to use caution during times of heavy rain and watch for localized flooding, especially in low-lying areas and on the roadways. Rainfall amounts of two to four inches will be possible through Wednesday near the Nature Coast and Big Bend regions, near and just east of the track of the low. Locally heavy downpours are possible statewide through midweek, as tropical moisture feeds in to the system until is passes Wednesday.

The Florida Public Radio Emergency Network will continue to monitor the latest trends with Invest 99 and possible tropical development. Stay informed on your local radio station or download the new mobile app, Florida Storms.

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Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).
Sources include nearby emergency management agencies, FEMA, and your local NPR affiliate. 
Sources include the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Highway Patrol and other nearby traffic information.

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