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El Niño Has Peaked, So Now What

Computer model forecasts for El Niño.

Computer model forecasts from NOAA. A positive number reflects warm Pacific Ocean water temperatures and El Niño conditions.

We learned this week that winter isn’t over. Neither are the influences from a near-record El Niño.  In their monthly discussion, NOAA said Thursday that the El Niño “will likely weaken and transition to a neutral phase by late spring or early summer”. The damage, per se, has been done. Record rains and eight tornadoes hit south Florida over a span of two weeks in January. This was followed by a cold snap that sent temperatures below freezing multiple mornings in a row in north Florida.

The next two weeks, however, are likely to be relatively calm and comfortable. The official forecast