Tropical Development Likely East of Florida This Weekend

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- Tropical development likely, but it would be weak

- High confidence system stays east of Florida with minimal impacts

- Regardless, rain chances and rip current risks are on the rise

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Thursday 10 am Update: The National Hurricane Center now says the disturbance between Bermuda and The Bahamas (referred to as Invest 91) has a "high" chance of developing. However, confidence has also increased that it will stay well to the east of Florida and have more of an impact in South or North Carolina this weekend. Regardless of Invest 91's track or strength, rain chances will be on the rise across parts of the state this weekend and seas will be a bit rough along the Atlantic beaches.

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Video posted Tuesday when the system was first identified by the National Hurricane Center.

The 2016 Hurricane Season is still about a week away, but a system is already stirring up interest near the Bahamas.  However, it shouldn't mess up most Floridian's holiday weekend plans. At the very least, afternoon rain chances will be on the rise and the seas a little rough on the Atlantic Coast. If tropical development were to occur, potential impacts - likely minimal - would be arriving Sunday or Monday. Chances of this happening are still low at this point.

If or when the next named storm develops, it will be called Bonnie. Alex, a rare winter hurricane - the season’s first - formed in January. The season officially begins June 1, but it's not uncommon for a system to develop in late May. When they do form this early in the season, they usually develop or track through far west Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.  We had two such storms hit Florida in 2012. Tropical Storm Beryl came ashore Memorial Day Weekend near the First Coast, and Tropical Storm Debby impacted the Nature Coast in late June.