Saturday Update: Not much has changed from 24 hours ago with Invest 99. Thunderstorms have been a bit more consistent on the eastern side of the tropical wave, and satellite data suggests wind shear may be diminishing some. However, the interactions of land to the south (Cuba) and in it's path (South Florida) would likely keep development, if any, slow to occur. When the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, conditions are marginally more favorable for a tropical depression or storm to form.  For these reasons, the National Hurricane Center has kept the chances of tropical cyclone formation at about 50 percent.

 

 

The general idea that heavy rain will spread across portions of South Florida late Sunday and Monday, then potentially as far north as the I-4 corridor Monday and Tuesday hasn't changed.  What's also not changed is the ability to make a credible forecast on how Invest 99 might (or might not) affect North Florida and the Florida Panhandle.  The waiting game we spoke of three days ago continues...

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Original post from Friday afternoon...

• Conditions more favorable for development in eastern Gulf of Mexico
• Regardless of development, locally heavy rain likely
• Multiple hazards are possible if Invest 99 becomes a tropical storm

Invest 99 has weakened over the past 24 hours, but it still could develop into a named tropical storm by the beginning of next week.  Regardless of development or outcome, locally heavy rain is possible across parts of Florida over the next five days. If Invest 99 strengthens into a formidable tropical storm, other hazards including tornadoes, wind damage, and surge would be possible along sections of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

 

 

 

Potential Hazards from Invest 99

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Flooding (Sunday Tuesday): 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

Winds (Sunday): Wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible in some of the heavier rain squalls. Little or no wind damage is expected at this time.

Tornadoes (Sunday Tuesday):  An isolated tornado or waterspout is possible in stronger bands of thunderstorms.

Rip Currents (Now Wednesday): A moderate to high risk of rip currents will exist over the next five days. Swimmers and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution, and only enter the water where there is a lifeguard on duty.

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Heavy Rain (Sunday Wednesday):  3 to 5 inches of rain is expected, with the highest amounts expected closer to the coast. If Invest 99 strengthens into a tropical storm, higher amounts of rain will be possible.

Winds (Monday Tuesday):  Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on winds at this time.

Surge (Monday Tuesday):  Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on storm surge at this time.

Tornadoes (Monday Tuesday):  Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on the tornado risk at this time.

Rip Currents (Sunday Thursday): A moderate to high risk of rip currents will exist over the next five days. Swimmers and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution, and only enter the water where there is a lifeguard on duty.

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Heavy Rain (Monday Wednesday):  1 to 3 inches of rain are possible, with the highest amounts expected in west-central Florida.

Tornadoes (Monday Wednesday): An isolated tornado or waterspout is possible in stronger bands of thunderstorms.

Rip Currents (Sunday Thursday): A moderate to high risk of rip currents will exist over the next five days. Swimmers and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution, and only enter the water where there is a lifeguard on duty.

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Heavy Rain (Monday Wednesday):  1 to 3 inches of rain is possible, with the highest
amounts expected closer to the Nature Coast.

Tornadoes (Monday Wednesday):  An isolated tornado or waterspout is possible in stronger bands of thunderstorms.

Rip Currents (Saturday Thursday):  A moderate to high risk of rip currents will exist over the next five days. Swimmers and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution, and only enter the water where there is a lifeguard on duty.

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Heavy Rain (Monday Thursday): 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected, with the highest amounts expected closer to the coast. If Invest 99 strengthens into a tropical storm, higher amounts of rain will be possible.

Winds (Tuesday Thursday):  Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on winds at this time.

Surge (Tuesday Thursday): Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on storm surge at this time.

Tornadoes (Tuesday Thursday): Uncertainty in the outcome of Invest 99 precludes a credible forecast on the tornado risk at this time.

Rip Currents (Sunday Thursday): A moderate to high risk of rip currents will exist over the next five days. Swimmers and beach-goers are urged to use extreme caution, and only enter the water where there is a lifeguard on duty.

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Uncertainty in the Gulf

Confidence is high that the system will track into the Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Where Invest 99 goes and how strong it could be beyond Sunday is still highly uncertain. It must be noted that conditions are far more favorable for intensification once Invest 99 enters the eastern Gulf, where waters are very warm and upper-level winds should be rather light.

Regarding the track of the system after it enters the Gulf, it is too early to make a credible call on where it might go or who it might impact the most. For this reason, we encourage all Floridians to stay aware of the forecast for Invest 99 over the next five days.

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