• The intensity forecast for TD9 is “lower than usual” (NHC)
• Landfall possible by Thursday in North Florida or the Florida Panhandle
• Heavy rain will spread across portions of South Florida beginning Monday

Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters Sunday found there to be a well-defined center to the area of low pressure near the Florida Keys, formerly known as Invest 99. The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine at 5 pm. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm Monday and potentially move across the northern half of the Florida peninsula by Thursday.

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The Most Important Message

While confidence is reasonably high that Depression Nine will turn north and eventually northeast across Florida, the National Hurricane Center issued an important statement in their first advisory,

“Needless to say, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than usual for this system.”

For several days, forecast models have had a difficult time staying consistent in their rendering of this system. Even at this hour, some data suggests it will struggle to form or dissipate entirely, whereas equally weighted data (in terms of credibility) shows a much grimmer outcome that a hurricane might hit the state.

The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center is noted as “quite conservative” by their lead forecasters. For this reason, all Floridians are strongly encouraged to stay informed of future updates on the progression of Tropical Depression Nine.

Potential Hazards from TD9

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