1. Development likely in next 48 hours
2. Too early for specifics on track/strength
3. Heavy rain risk in north FL and panhandle

A tropical storm or depression making landfall in the Florida panhandle would certainly be cause for concern with regards to potential flooding. We believe this risk is present in some portions of Florida regardless. One would only have to look at Sunday’s water vapor loop to see why.

This large area of moisture will be pulled north and east across the state on Monday, and potentially linger across the northern third of Florida through Wednesday. Not only will it likely enhance the daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the peninsula, it could also produce large clusters of convection (thunderstorms) that might train over some of the same areas by midweek.

Generally speaking, we expect five-day rainfall totals to be highest along the Gulf coast from Pensacola to the Big Bend where more than four inches could fall.  Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely in many areas north of I-4, with lesser amounts expected further south. [/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner]