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When preparations and evacuations MUST be completed...
  • Key West, Miami and Fort Lauderdale – sunset tonight
  • Naples, Ft. Myers, West Palm and Ft. Pierce – noon Saturday
  • Sarasota, Bradenton, Melbourne – sunset Saturday
  • Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach – 6 am Sunday
  • Ocala, Gainesville, Jacksonville, St. Augustine – noon Sunday

Hundreds of thousands of South Floridians in the path of Major Hurricane Irma have less than 24 hours to make a decision. A decision to find higher ground, a sturdier structure, or hit the highway. Doing nothing is also a decision, but potentially a life-threatening one.

The winds of Irma are strong enough to leave homes and businesses “uninhabitable for weeks”, so says the National Weather Service in Miami. The storm surge will be high enough in some spots to move miles inland. The rain will fall at a rate too fast for drainage systems and waterways to contain. And further inland, tornadoes could spin up very quickly, exacerbating the structural damage and threat to life for anyone not in a safe place.

Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate told us during a Facebook Live last night that “This is about as bad as it gets. This storm is bringing everything.”  He believes if we wait for “certainty”, it will be too late.

NHC Track
Models
Shear
Satellite

431
WTNT31 KNHC 212033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

…ANDREA IS A REMNANT LOW…
…THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…30.8N 68.3W
ABOUT 230 MI…370 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 68.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph
(13 km/h) and a turn toward the east is expected tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to dissipate by Wednesday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT41 KNHC 212033
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
500 PM AST Tue May 21 2019

The cyclone has lacked deep convection since early this morning,
and therefore it no longer qualifies as either a tropical or a
subtropical cyclone. Dry mid-level air, the influence of an
upper-level low, and marginal SSTs should preclude re-development.
The cyclone is likely to dissipate in a day or so as it becomes
absorbed into a frontal zone.

Post-tropical Andrea has turned to the east-northeast and the
motion is about 070/7. The system should move mainly eastward
within the mid-level westerlies until dissipation.

This is the last advisory on Andrea. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 30.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROPICAL
12H 22/0600Z 31.2N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 22/1800Z 31.7N 62.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/0600Z…DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Before we get to how bad it "could" get...

This story will be updated often on the meteorology and potential hazards at various locations throughout the State of Florida, as we gain a better understanding of how severe the impacts could be. Those updates will be posted by midday.

For information on evacuation orders, visit the State of Florida Hurricane Irma Disaster Info page. For help with evacuation zones, routes, and open shelters, our mobile app Florida Storms is a great resource.

This Post Has 2 Comments
  1. We left Indialantic this morning under mandatory evacuation and we are now in the Lake Mary area in Orlando and I am concerned whether we will have to evacuate this area at some point. Traveling with family and Grand children.
    Will the local people advise us to evacuate or do we have to stay for the storm?

  2. Hi Jeff,
    I just wanted to say THANK YOU for putting up that message to Consider waking up family and friends in the Ft. Myers/Tampa area. Yes, it was late, yes, I was worried about waking them, but when the new update was released and we learned this storm shifted greatly to the west, even I knew this was serious. I could tell the newsroom was shocked, worried and concerned when it came back on air, so I called my family in Ft. Myers to warn them. I did not know if they knew or not but I knew it was a life threatening situation.
    Thank you, thank you, thank you, all of you, for keeping it real, telling us how it is, and taking a chance when your heart told you too. I know that message saved many lives!!!
    Keep up the excellent work!! I am thankful to have a REAL weather channel I canTRUST and turn to in major events! Thank you!!
    God bless all of you and your families through this storm and always!
    Marcie Jean
    Melbourne,, FL
    PS: I noticed how well all of you handle those stupid comments some people post. How do younz keep your cool? Another fine and professional job done well. I fear, that if I were dealing with that childishness, I would find myself out of a job, sued, AND in jail. Lol
    Keep it real you guys! Once again,THANK YOU ALL.

Comments are closed.

Post Series: Irma
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