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  1. Rain likely in most areas Tuesday
  2. Drier on Wednesday
  3. Heavy rain possible in spots Thanksgiving Day

Hardly a drop of rain has fallen in Florida since the rainy season ended in early October. This week, in just a span of four days, the entire month of November’s normal rain may fall across parts of the peninsula.

Rainfall potential over the next five days.

Two separate, but somewhat related, storm systems are forecast to develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move across Florida during the so-called busiest travel week of the year. Heavy rain is likely at times, with even thunderstorms possible in some spots. The wet weather will be most prominent south of the I-10 corridor on Tuesday, then again on Thanksgiving Day.


Motorists and those traveling by air over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday period to or from Florida may be affected by the adverse weather and are urged to stay informed of the latest forecast and plan for possible delays.

The first round on Tuesday

In the wake of an early week surge of cooler and drier air, moisture will be quick to return to the Sunshine State Monday night and Tuesday. The boundary separating the two air masses, called a warm front, will lift north Tuesday and produce widespread areas of rain and a few embedded thunderstorms. A weak area of low pressure is also expected to from along the front in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, enhancing the rain at times. It likely won’t rain all day Tuesday at any given location, but at least an hour or two of wet weather is expected in nearly all locations of Florida (except the panhandle).

A stronger storm Thanksgiving Day

The first wave will quickly move east of Florida Wednesday, leaving behind a mix of clouds and sun with only spotty showers. A stronger storm system is then expected to race across the Gulf from Texas and intensify on its approach. Confidence in how strong it becomes before arriving or precisely where it tracks is quite low due to forecast model discrepancies. Nonetheless, a period of unsettled weather that could include heavy rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds is possible on Thanksgiving Day, and potentially lasting into Friday in some areas.

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