The Tropical Atlantic is void of any imminent threats, with just over a month and a half of hurricane season remaining.
Two areas of interest have been identified by the National Hurricane Center as having a “low chance” of developing, but neither are likely to be a significant threat to Florida. Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to move farther away from land across the northern Atlantic, also directly affecting any land areas.
Issued: 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Teddy, located over the central Atlantic, on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and on Subtropical Storm Alpha, located inland over northwestern Portugal.
1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located near the western Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move southward for the next couple of days and then stall over marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or early next week while it moves little. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by early Saturday. Some slow development of the system will be possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Alpha are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Wilfred are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2
The first area of interest is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea. This activity could become more organized as it is pushed westward toward Belize by the beginning of the coming week. Most reliable forecast data suggests the system would then enter the eastern Pacific Ocean by the end of the week, where gradual strengthening is possible. At this time, the disturbance is unlikely to pose a threat to the United States.
The second area of interest is a tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa. Conditions could become marginally favorable for development as it moves west of the islands of Cape Verde early this week. However, models suggest that an increase in wind shear by Wednesday will likely negate any further development. Regardless, the system will remain over the Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to any land areas.
Expires at 6:00pm on Sunday October 13th, 2019
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