The Tropical Atlantic is void of any imminent threats, with just over a month and a half of hurricane season remaining.
Two areas of interest have been identified by the National Hurricane Center as having a “low chance” of developing, but neither are likely to be a significant threat to Florida. Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to move farther away from land across the northern Atlantic, also directly affecting any land areas.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A small area of low pressure located about 300 miles west-southwest
of Bermuda continues to produce persistent showers and
thunderstorms. The system appears to be getting better organized,
and if current trends continue, it could become a tropical
depression later today or tonight while it moves east-northeastward
or northeastward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are
expected to become unfavorable for further development by late
Sunday. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
The first area of interest is a broad area of showers and thunderstorms located over the western Caribbean Sea. This activity could become more organized as it is pushed westward toward Belize by the beginning of the coming week. Most reliable forecast data suggests the system would then enter the eastern Pacific Ocean by the end of the week, where gradual strengthening is possible. At this time, the disturbance is unlikely to pose a threat to the United States.
The second area of interest is a tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa. Conditions could become marginally favorable for development as it moves west of the islands of Cape Verde early this week. However, models suggest that an increase in wind shear by Wednesday will likely negate any further development. Regardless, the system will remain over the Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to any land areas.
Expires at 6:00pm on Sunday October 13th, 2019
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