A tropical wave in the northern Caribbean is expected to cross South Florida this week, which could produce multiple rounds of rain, waterspouts, and urban street flooding at times.
It was already a wet weekend across the southern third of the state, especially near Miami where several inches of rain fell Friday night and Saturday.
Pockets of heavy rain continued over the region Sunday as a prior tropical wave moved through.
Tropical moisture will be directed at the Sunshine State this week thanks to the wind patterns on the northern side of the tropical wave. The clock-wise rotation around two areas of high pressure, one located near Bermuda and the other in the Central U.S., will enhance the easterly flow and draw in abundant amounts of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean.
North Florida and the Florida Panhandle will continue to be under the influence of a drier air mass through at least Tuesday, with far less rain coverage expected. The showers and thunderstorms farther south, however, will be more widespread and could occur at any time of day. The strongest cells will have the potential to produce to produce heavy rainfall, waterspouts, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Some of the downpours may occur repeatedly over the same areas, which would enhance the risk for localized flooding.
The National Hurricane Center identified this disturbance Sunday for potential development, giving it a slight (20%) chance of evolving into a tropical system over the next five days. If a tropical depression or storm were to form, it would most likely occur in the Gulf of Mexico and move away from Florida by Wednesday or Thursday. Long range forecast models are then suggesting a slightly drier pattern will develop over Florida by the end of the week, with a return to a more diurnal summer rain pattern.
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