More Developments in the Tropics Likely Soon, but None are a Current Threat to Florida

September 4, 2020

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several tropical waves near Africa, but none pose a current threat to the Southeastern United States.

The month of September is certainly living up to its reputation of being an active month in the tropics. So far this month, Nana and Omar have developed and dissipated in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a train of tropical waves is progressing off the west African coast and into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. These clusters of thunderstorms all have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.

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WATCHING CLOSELY

NHC: Low chance of tropical development in next five days.

Issued: 410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$Forecaster Berg/Brown NNNN

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three areas off the coast of Africa. All could develop into tropical cyclones within the next week. In this region, sea surface temperatures remain elevated and the atmosphere is rich with moisture. Both of these factors support cyclone development. However, upper level winds are strong and these may detract from intensification. As these areas of interest track westward, the wind shear is forecast to decrease which could encourage storm organization.

Regardless of which waves, if any, become the season's next storm, broad scale weather patterns suggest that they may not be a threat to land. Several global models indicate that over the next week or two high pressure ridging will develop over both the eastern Atlantic and over the Bahamas. A gap between these two ridges may guide any tropical systems toward the north before they reach the United States.

There are many other factors that play into the formation, intensification, and track of a tropical cyclone. The long range forecast is uncertain, but confidence is high that there will be no tropical threats to the Southeast this Labor Day weekend.

Expired, State of Florida, Tropical Weather

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