The National Hurricane Center is monitoring several tropical waves near Africa, but none pose a current threat to the Southeastern United States.
The month of September is certainly living up to its reputation of being an active month in the tropics. So far this month, Nana and Omar have developed and dissipated in the Atlantic Basin. In addition, a train of tropical waves is progressing off the west African coast and into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. These clusters of thunderstorms all have the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.
The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring three areas off the coast of Africa. All could develop into tropical cyclones within the next week. In this region, sea surface temperatures remain elevated and the atmosphere is rich with moisture. Both of these factors support cyclone development. However, upper level winds are strong and these may detract from intensification. As these areas of interest track westward, the wind shear is forecast to decrease which could encourage storm organization.
Regardless of which waves, if any, become the season's next storm, broad scale weather patterns suggest that they may not be a threat to land. Several global models indicate that over the next week or two high pressure ridging will develop over both the eastern Atlantic and over the Bahamas. A gap between these two ridges may guide any tropical systems toward the north before they reach the United States.
There are many other factors that play into the formation, intensification, and track of a tropical cyclone. The long range forecast is uncertain, but confidence is high that there will be no tropical threats to the Southeast this Labor Day weekend.
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