The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the southwest Caribbean Sea for the first time in the young 2021 Season for possible tropical development.
Issued: 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021
1. An area of low pressure located off of the southeastern United States coastline continues to produce a large region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream, just offshore of the southeastern United States.
Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
It gives an area near the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica a low chance of development, where an area of low pressure is expected to form Thursday or Friday. The latest outlook says gradual development is possible after the area of low pressure forms, toward next weekend.
An atmospheric wave that tends to increase the number of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean Basins late this week into next week. It is this wave that has a small chance of spawning a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, but it is too soon to be certain.
June is often a quiet month in the tropics compared to the active months of August, September, and October. However, the southwest Caribbean is a climatologically-favored area for tropical development in June if an area of disturbed weather develops there.
Expires at 2:00pm on Wednesday June 9th, 2021
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