Low Chance of Development in the Caribbean by This Weekend

June 8, 2021

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the southwest Caribbean Sea for the first time in the young 2021 Season for possible tropical development.

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WATCHING CLOSELY

NHC: Low chance of tropical development in next five days.

Issued: 100 PM EST Sat Nov 25 2023

1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):A non-tropical low pressure system located over the eastern subtropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to move north-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph over much colder waters later today and tonight, and become embedded in a cold air mass with frontal boundaries. Therefore, it is unlikely that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Kelly

It gives an area near the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica a low chance of development, where an area of low pressure is expected to form Thursday or Friday. The latest outlook says gradual development is possible after the area of low pressure forms, toward next weekend.

An atmospheric wave that tends to increase the number of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward from the eastern Pacific into the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean Basins late this week into next week. It is this wave that has a small chance of spawning a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, but it is too soon to be certain.

June is often a quiet month in the tropics compared to the active months of August, September, and October. However, the southwest Caribbean is a climatologically-favored area for tropical development in June if an area of disturbed weather develops there.

Expired, State of Florida, Tropical Weather

Tropical outlook

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Sources include nearest National Weather Service office, National Hurricane Center, and the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (@FloridaStorms).

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