Two Tropical Waves Crossing the Atlantic, Neither are a Current Threat

June 23, 2021

Two robust tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic Ocean this week, with both showing at least a hint of developing. However, neither are expected to become a threat to the United States in the next five to seven days.

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WATCHING CLOSELY

NHC: Low chance of tropical development in next five days.

Issued: 410 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

East-Central Subtropical Atlantic:An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$Forecaster Berg/Brown NNNN

The first wave of interest was located a few hundred miles east of Barbados Wednesday evening, where thunderstorm activity had recently flared up. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have kept chances of tropical cyclone formation very low with this wave, and say only an "increase in shower activity and gusty winds" were expected as moves across the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Upper-level are likely to be too strong for development with this wave as it moves through the Caribbean this weekend, but some of the tropical moisture associated with it may eventually reach the Gulf of Mexico next week.

A second tropical wave appeared stronger and more organized on satellite data as it was emerging off the west coast of Africa Wednesday. Long range forecast models suggest some gradual tropical development may occur with this feature as it traverses the central Atlantic Ocean over the next five days. The National Hurricane Center said there is a "medium chance" it could develop into a depression or named storm as of their Thursday morning update.

Climatologically argues against a tropical storm or hurricane originating east of the Lesser Antilles in late June, as less than 4% of them have done so since 1851. However, both disturbances this week have proven to be stronger than normal for this time of year. Tropical waves that originate over Africa tend to dissipate quickly in the central Atlantic until oceanic and atmospheric conditions become more favorable in late summer or early fall.

Expired, State of Florida, Tropical Weather

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