Deeper moisture is back on the move into Florida this week, making way for numerous thunderstorms to replace the recent stretch of drier weather over the next few days across most of the state.
A slow-moving front drifting through the Southeast is forecast to induce a more dominant southwesterly wind, drawing deeper moisture into the atmosphere from the Gulf of Mexico toward the front. The moisture will intersect the lift from the nearby front in the Florida Panhandle and along the I-10 corridor from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, which is where showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread through midweek.
A second area of higher rain chances will develop this week along a progressive Gulf Coast sea breeze that will likely trigger broken lines of cells on its journey inland each afternoon. Where this boundary interacts with a pinned Atlantic Coast sea breeze is where stronger and more numerous storms could develop by the early evening hours, which will likely be near and just west of the the I-95 corridor from Jacksonville to Miami, including the Orlando metro area.
This type of pattern generally leads to drier weather immediately along the Gulf Coast from Florida's Big Bend to Tampa, including areas along the Nature Coast and near or west of I-75 in North and Central Florida. The added cloud cover from the more widespread thunderstorm activity also tends to limit afternoon heating and reduce daytime highs, which is also in the forecast for most Florida cities. The deeper moisture and stalled front is forecast to linger across much of Florida through at least Thursday, before the front weakens and higher pressure builds in Friday or Saturday.
Issued: 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 26 2021
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 900 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.
1. An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds only appear marginally conducive for some slow development of this disturbance over the next couple of days as it moves northeastward at about 10 mph.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
2. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
3. A broad area of low pressure could form over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic early this week, to the west of the tropical wave that will be moving off the coast of Africa. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this disturbance while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph through the middle of the week.
Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Expires at 8:00pm on Monday July 19th, 2021
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