The tropical wave we have been watching for the last 7 days continues to bring heavy rains to the Greater Antilles and it is set to continue to be very disorganized through the beginning of the weekend. It is this lack of organization that is preventing it from taking a northward turn. The messier, the harder it is for the high-pressure system to pick it up and guide it northward, keeping it east of Florida. So, the track has shifted and now we expect this messy system to move west of Florida and enter the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

What’s happening with Invest 97L?

This tropical wave was officially labeled Invest 97L and this simply just means that the National Hurricane Center is watching it even closer, and the labeling helps differentiate in model outputs. Conditions are likely to become more favorable for it to become better organized on Saturday, but keep in mind that it is not expected to become a full-fledged system right away on Saturday. It is likely to continue without a well-defined center of circulation with rains and thunderstorms spread out over Florida.

Heavy rains coming to Florida.

Florida is expected to get an uptick in rain and thunderstorm activity this weekend, with rain moving from south to north. Late Saturday, the storms and showers will be mainly moving from west to east. You can bet on the periods of heavy rainfall to continue through early next week, and depending on the direction the system takes, the rain could last for a longer period next week. Some models are hinting at areas with more than 7 inches of rain. Keep in mind that we have a long stretch to go, and lots of factors at play, so exact amounts on exact locations will change.

There is lots of uncertainty about it becoming a strong hurricane. Based on the National Hurricane Center’s forecast there could still be 7 days until this system receives a name. Florida needs to be ready for a big rain event.