Hurricane Isaias
LOCATED
20 MI E OF ANDROS ISLAND BAHAMAS
WINDS
85 MPH
PRESSURE
987 MB
MOVING
NW AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020
RAGGED EYE OF ISAIAS NEAR EASTERN ANDROS ISLAND
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key messages
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected inportions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warningsare in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Floridaeast coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warninghas been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coastfrom Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to

4.eet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastlineand adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should followadvice given by local emergency officials.4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and stormsurge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through earlynext week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaiasand updates to the forecast.

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected inportions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warningsare in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Floridaeast coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warningis in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coastfrom Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to

4.eet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastlineand adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should followadvice given by local emergency officials.4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and stormsurge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through earlynext week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaiasand updates to the forecast.

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected inportions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warningsare in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Floridaeast coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warninghas been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coastfrom Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to

4.eet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastlineand adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should followadvice given by local emergency officials.4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and stormsurge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through earlynext week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaiasand updates to the forecast.

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected inportions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warningsare in effect.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Floridaeast coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warningis in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coastfrom Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to

4.eet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastlineand adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should followadvice given by local emergency officials.4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and stormsurge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through earlynext week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaiasand updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
- Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
- Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for the Central Bahamas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
- Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida
- Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...24 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, especially in lowlying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into eastCentral Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, especially in lowlying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...24 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas later today.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening.

RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:

Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches.

Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.

These rainfall amounts could lead to lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, especially in lowlying and poorly drained areas.

From Friday night through Tuesday:

South Florida into eastCentral Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.

Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially lifethreatening flash and urban flooding, especially in lowlying and poorly drained areas. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northnorthwest by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move near or over Andros Island in the Northwestern Bahamas this morning and continue to move near or over the rest of Northwestern Bahamas later today, and move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft was 987 mb (29.15 inches).

Isaias has a somewhat asymmetrical appearance on satellite images, with lots of deep convection over the eastern semicircle and not as much over the western part of the circulation. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has dropped a few mb, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft indicate an intensity of near 70 kt. The hurricane is experiencing some westerly shear, and this is likely to limit intensification. However, some strengthening is still possible on Saturday. When Isais moves farther north in a couple of days, the shear should cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and a little above the model consensus.The hurricane continues moving northwestward at a bit slower pace, or 310/13 kt. The general track forecast philosophy has not changed. Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge through Saturday and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. Thereafter, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely during days 3 to 5. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus.The hurricane warning has been extended northward along the Florida east coast.

Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery thismorning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry airentrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size,although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near thecenter and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dryslot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the centralconvection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Huntermission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours.The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track.

The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time.

Isaias has a somewhat asymmetrical appearance on satellite images, with lots of deep convection over the eastern semicircle and not as much over the western part of the circulation. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has dropped a few mb, and flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from the aircraft indicate an intensity of near 70 kt. The hurricane is experiencing some westerly shear, and this is likely to limit intensification. However, some strengthening is still possible on Saturday. When Isais moves farther north in a couple of days, the shear should cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one, and a little above the model consensus.The hurricane continues moving northwestward at a bit slower pace, or 310/13 kt. The general track forecast philosophy has not changed. Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge through Saturday and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. Thereafter, a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is likely during days 3 to 5. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus.The hurricane warning has been extended northward along the Florida east coast.

Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery thismorning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry airentrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size,although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near thecenter and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dryslot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the centralconvection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Huntermission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours.The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track.

The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time.

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